RISe: Illustrating geo-referenced data of seismic risk and loss assessment studies using Google Earth.

Predicting the consequences of large earthquakes to the built environment is of high importance for disaster control, civil protection and emergency planning. A number of software tools are now available to estimate physical building damage and associated losses in terms of casualties and economic losses. In recent years, SELENA, a seismic risk and loss assessment software which makes use of the capacity spectrum method (CSM) has been developed into a widely applicable tool. Since SELENA functions independently from a Geographic Information System, we developed RISe (Risk Illustrator for Selena), a standalone tool that illustrates SELENA files in Google Earth. RISe is customized to the Selena file structure and allows easy conversion of all geographically referenced files such as building inventory data, soil conditions, ground motion values, as well as final risk and loss results. RISe is distributed as public domain open-source software that allows the user to take full advantage of Google Earth’s features including high-resolution satellite images from nearly every built environment worldwide

Designing Web-enabled services to provide damage estimation maps caused by natural hazards

The availability of building stock inventory data and demographic information is an important requirement for risk assessment studies when attempting to predict and estimate losses due to natural hazards such as earthquakes, storms, floods or tsunamis. The better this information is provided, the more accurate are predictions on damage to structures and lifelines and the better can expected impacts on the population be estimated. When a disaster strikes, a map is often one of the first requirements for answering questions related to location, casualties and damage zones caused by the event. Maps of appropriate scale that represent relative and absolute damage distributions may be of great importance for rescuing lives and properties, and for providing relief. However, this type of maps is often difficult to obtain during the first hours or even days after the occurrence of a natural disaster. The Open Geospatial Consortium Web Services (OWS) Specifications enable access to datasets and services using shared, distributed and interoperable environments through web-enabled services. In this paper we propose the use of OWS in view of these advantages as a possible solution for issues related to suitable dataset acquisition for risk assessment studies. The design of web-enabled services was carried out using the municipality of Managua (Nicaragua) and the development of damage and loss estimation maps caused by earthquakes as a first case study. Four organizations located in different places are involved in this proposal and connected through web services, each one with a specific role

The Selena-Rise Open Risk Package

Today, a considerable number of non-commercial seismic risk analysis tools are available. The happy circumstance that the tools are free is likely a result of the fact that the group of potential users or customers is small and with limited funds which are not sufficient for the distribution of commercial or proprietary seismic risk assessment software. Aware of the need for non-proprietary and open-source software for seismic risk and loss computation, the International Centre for Geohazards (ICG), through NORSAR (Norway) and the University of Alicante (Spain), began the development of the tool SELENA in 2004. The current version 4.1 of SELENA (Seismic Loss Estimation using a Logic Tree Approach; Molina et al., 2009), initially coded in MATLAB, has recently been translated into C. Thus, the code can be compiled as a stand-alone binary, which is then independent of MATLAB and its toolboxes. Furthermore, the code has been adapted in such a way that it can even be run in the free (open-source) MATLAB clone Octave. In order to make it even more attractive to use SELENA, the separate software tool RISe (Risk Illustrator for SELENA; Lang and Gutiérrez, 2009) has been developed to allow easy conversion of the geo-referenced SELENA input and output files into Google Earth kml-files. Since it is linked to the Google Earth visualization, the user automatically takes full advantage of the partly highresolution satellite images provided by Google Earth. This is particularly important in situations where other commercial GIS packages do not provide a high resolution database, or for developing countries where many cities and municipalities cannot be displayed on high resolution base maps other than Google Earth satellite images. RISe is customized to SELENA’s file structure, and it is further intended to assist the user during the different stages of the risk computation process. Like SELENA, RISe is openly distributed through NORSAR’s webpage www.norsar.no The open SELENA-RISe package is a powerful tool to conduct earthquake risk and loss computations at the level of geographical units (such as census tracts). Since SELENA offers a range of options to the user and is open to any user-defined input data, its application for scientific and analytical purposes is facilitated. In contrast, more practical applications of SELENA are enabled through its Google Earth interface RISe. This allows for easy identification of more vulnerable building typologies or building areas through a simple graphical visualization of inventory data and computation results. Further, SELENA-RISe can be used within cost benefit analyses since the impact of parameter changes (e.g. of building vulnerability) on final damage and loss estimates can be investigated and directly illustrated

A Next-Generation Open-Source Tool for Earthquake Loss Estimation

Earthquake loss estimation (ELE), generally also referred to as earthquake risk assessment, is a comparably young research discipline which, at first, relied on empirical observations based on a macroseismic intensity scale. Later, with the advent of methodologies and procedures that are based on theoretical simulation in estimating physical damage under earthquake loading, the analytical approach for ELE was formulated. The open-source software SELENA, which is a joint development of NORSAR (Norway) and the University of Alicante (Spain), is undergoing a constant development. One of the more recent features being included is the possibility to address topographic amplification of seismic ground motion. Additionally, SELENA has been adapted by including various methods for the analytical computation of structural damage and loss. SELENA now offers complete flexibility in the use of different types of fragility curves based on various ground motion intensity parameters (e.g. PGA, Sa, Sd), which has been suggested by many recently released guidelines (e.g. FEMA P-58, GEM-ASV, SYNER-G, HAZUS- MH). Besides, under the framework of the ongoing Horizon 2020 LIQUEFACT project, SELENA is extended in order to allow the consideration of liquefaction-induced ground displacements and respective structural damage. In general, software tools for ELE are particularly useful in two different settings, i.e., for disaster management and (re)insurance purposes. Both sectors pose very different demands on ELE studies: while the (re)insurance sector is foremost interested in the direct and indirect economic losses caused by an earthquake to its insured physical assets, those institutions (often governmental and non- governmental organizations) in charge of disaster emergency management and response are more interested in reliable estimates on human losses and the potential short- and long-term social consequences. Being aware about these peculiar differences between software tools for disaster management and insurance applications, NORSAR/UA thereby offers two in its core similar software tools, i.e., the open-source software SELENA and the proprietary software PML (Probable Maximum Loss) which is actively used by the insurance association in Chile (South America) since 2011.The present research has been benefited from funding of NORSAR and the Univ. Alicante through research contracts (NORSAR1-14A, NORSAR1-08I), the funding of the Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad (CGL2016-77688-R) and the Generalitat Valenciana (BEST/2012/173 and AICO/2016/098). The development and implementation of the liquefaction risk assessment methodology is done under the LIQUEFACT project funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement (No. 700748)

Sensitivity of structural damage to earthquake ground motion scenarios. The Torrevieja earthquake case study

Structural damage computation using analytical methods requires the knowledge of the ground motion distribution in the urban area caused by a given earthquake. In this manuscript, the ground motion estimates (i.e. PGA and spectral acceleration values) are obtained through simulation of the 1829 Torrevieja earthquake using the NGA ground motion prediction equations (GMPE). The building stock under consideration has been classified according to the methodology presented in RISK-UE. The computations have been done using the last version of the software SELENA. The epistemic uncertainties of the analysis are accounted for by means of a logic tree computation scheme. The logic tree has two branches for the uncertainty in the earthquake scenario, two branches for the GMPEs and three branches to consider the uncertainties in average shear wave velocity Vs30 (soil conditions). Results indicate large differences derived for the different earthquake loss scenarios (ELE) obtained following each branch of the logic tree. The greatest structural damages and losses are obtained when the earthquake is located in the Bajo Segura fault zone, using Campbell and Bozorgnia GMPE and for soft soil conditions. This article has allowed us to see how the different possible input parameters for ELE should be carefully analyzed for each case study and the importance of providing ELE results in terms of mean values with corresponding uncertainty ranges.The present research has benefited from funding of the Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad through research project CGL2016-77688-R and the Generalitat Valenciana through the research project AICO/2016/098

Induction of IL-4R alpha-dependent microRNAs identifies PI3K/Akt signaling as essential for IL-4-driven murine macrophage proliferation in vivo

Macrophage (MΦ) activation must be tightly controlled to preclude overzealous responses that cause self-damage. MicroRNAs promote classical MΦ activation by blocking antiinflammatory signals and transcription factors but also can prevent excessive TLR signaling. In contrast, the microRNA profile associated with alternatively activated MΦ and their role in regulating wound healing or antihelminthic responses has not been described. By using an in vivo model of alternative activation in which adult Brugia malayi nematodes are implanted surgically in the peritoneal cavity of mice, we identified differential expression of miR-125b-5p, miR-146a-5p, miR-199b-5p, and miR-378-3p in helminth-induced MΦ. In vitro experiments demonstrated that miR-378-3p was specifically induced by IL-4 and revealed the IL-4–receptor/PI3K/Akt-signaling pathway as a target. Chemical inhibition of this pathway showed that intact Akt signaling is an important enhancement factor for alternative activation in vitro and in vivo and is essential for IL-4–driven MΦ proliferation in vivo. Thus, identification of miR-378-3p as an IL-4Rα–induced microRNA led to the discovery that Akt regulates the newly discovered mechanism of IL-4–driven macrophage proliferation. Together, the data suggest that negative regulation of Akt signaling via microRNAs might play a central role in limiting MΦ expansion and alternative activation during type 2 inflammatory settings

Discrepancy between prevalence and perceived effectiveness of treatment methods in myofascial pain syndrome: Results of a cross-sectional, nationwide survey

Background: Myofascial pain is a common dysfunction with a lifetime prevalence affecting up to 85% of the general population. Current guidelines for the management of myofascial pain are not available. In this study we investigated how physicians on the basis of prescription behaviour evaluate the effectiveness of treatment options in their management of myofascial pain. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional, nationwide survey with a standardized questionnaire among 332 physicians (79.8% male, 25.6% female, 47.5 +/- 9.6 years) experienced in treating patients with myofascial pain. Recruitment of physicians took place at three German meetings of pain therapists, rheumatologists and orthopaedists, respectively. Physicians estimated the prevalence of myofascial pain amongst patients in their practices, stated what treatments they used routinely and then rated the perceived treatment effectiveness on a six-point scale (with 1 being excellent). Data are expressed as mean +/- standard deviation. Results: The estimated overall prevalence of active myofascial trigger points is 46.1 +/- 27.4%. Frequently prescribed treatments are analgesics, mainly metamizol/paracetamol (91.6%), non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs/coxibs (87.0%) or weak opioids (81.8%), and physical therapies, mainly manual therapy (81.1%), TENS (72.9%) or acupuncture (60.2%). Overall effectiveness ratings for analgesics (2.9 +/- 0.7) and physical therapies were moderate (2.5 +/- 0.8). Effectiveness ratings of the various treatment options between specialities were widely variant. 54.3% of all physicians characterized the available treatment options as insufficient. Conclusions: Myofascial pain was estimated a prevalent condition. Despite a variety of commonly prescribed treatments, the moderate effectiveness ratings and the frequent characterizations of the available treatments as insufficient suggest an urgent need for clinical research to establish evidence-based guidelines for the treatment of myofascial pain syndrome

Etoricoxib - preemptive and postoperative analgesia (EPPA) in patients with laparotomy or thoracotomy - design and protocols

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background and Objective</p> <p>Our objective was to report on the design and essentials of the <it>Etoricoxib </it>protocol<it>- Preemptive and Postoperative Analgesia (EPPA) </it>Trial, investigating whether preemptive analgesia with cox-2 inhibitors is more efficacious than placebo in patients who receive either laparotomy or thoracotomy.</p> <p>Design and Methods</p> <p>The study is a 2 × 2 factorial armed, double blinded, bicentric, randomised placebo-controlled trial comparing (a) etoricoxib and (b) placebo in a pre- and postoperative setting. The total observation period is 6 months. According to a power analysis, 120 patients scheduled for abdominal or thoracic surgery will randomly be allocated to either the preemptive or the postoperative treatment group. These two groups are each divided into two arms. Preemptive group patients receive etoricoxib prior to surgery and either etoricoxib again or placebo postoperatively. Postoperative group patients receive placebo prior to surgery and either placebo again or etoricoxib after surgery (2 × 2 factorial study design). The Main Outcome Measure is the cumulative use of morphine within the first 48 hours after surgery (measured by patient controlled analgesia PCA). Secondary outcome parameters include a broad range of tests including sensoric perception and genetic polymorphisms.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>The results of this study will provide information on the analgesic effectiveness of etoricoxib in preemptive analgesia and will give hints on possible preventive effects of persistent pain.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>NCT00716833</p